* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192009 10/12/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 43 44 45 46 47 47 46 44 43 43 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 43 44 45 46 47 47 46 44 43 43 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 42 44 46 48 49 50 51 49 47 44 42 SHEAR (KT) 6 7 5 5 5 2 3 4 14 7 9 7 11 SHEAR DIR 50 47 42 75 125 122 176 138 139 159 145 196 237 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.8 29.0 28.9 28.4 27.8 27.1 26.3 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 150 151 150 151 153 151 146 140 132 124 116 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.6 -52.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -54.0 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 8 5 7 4 6 5 6 4 6 700-500 MB RH 67 65 64 61 58 54 44 43 41 38 32 32 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 8 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 33 19 15 22 9 -8 -7 -13 -22 -15 18 27 200 MB DIV 32 23 22 33 31 8 3 -6 9 -7 -1 -11 -15 LAND (KM) 418 396 375 369 365 226 112 145 236 268 270 291 287 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.7 20.9 22.0 22.5 22.5 22.7 23.3 23.9 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 108.5 108.7 108.8 109.0 109.2 109.6 110.5 111.4 112.6 113.6 114.4 115.0 115.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 6 7 6 5 5 5 4 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 31 31 30 28 26 25 30 22 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 8. 8. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192009 NINETEEN 10/12/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192009 NINETEEN 10/12/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY