* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * PATRICIA EP192009 10/12/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 46 47 50 52 52 50 46 43 42 41 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 46 47 50 52 52 50 46 43 42 41 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 44 46 47 49 52 54 53 50 46 43 40 SHEAR (KT) 7 5 6 4 3 4 4 16 10 12 8 7 10 SHEAR DIR 61 85 158 217 236 182 131 142 152 151 184 186 266 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.6 27.9 27.0 26.1 25.2 24.9 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 149 149 148 149 147 141 132 123 114 111 110 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -53.0 -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -54.4 -54.4 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 7 5 7 6 7 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 59 58 56 52 51 46 45 40 38 33 31 30 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 15 21 20 14 0 2 -13 -12 -4 10 14 22 200 MB DIV 20 20 27 10 -20 2 -11 11 -5 6 -8 -18 -23 LAND (KM) 445 373 289 222 155 67 52 126 228 290 356 503 648 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.6 20.3 20.9 21.5 22.3 22.9 22.9 22.7 22.7 23.0 22.9 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 109.6 109.7 109.8 109.9 110.0 110.1 110.6 111.5 112.7 114.0 115.2 116.8 118.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 6 5 4 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 19 25 25 26 29 35 23 21 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 18. 18. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 7. 10. 12. 12. 10. 6. 3. 2. 1. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192009 PATRICIA 10/12/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 5.2 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192009 PATRICIA 10/12/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED