* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICK EP202009 10/17/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 130 136 138 138 133 124 115 103 94 86 71 61 V (KT) LAND 120 130 136 138 138 133 124 115 103 94 86 71 61 V (KT) LGE mod 120 128 130 127 123 112 102 94 87 80 73 66 60 SHEAR (KT) 5 8 10 14 15 9 12 11 22 20 19 17 29 SHEAR DIR 251 233 214 228 242 223 225 202 177 167 166 208 257 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.4 29.1 28.6 28.2 27.8 27.4 27.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 166 167 167 166 164 159 155 149 145 140 137 137 147 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -51.1 -51.7 -50.4 -51.5 -50.8 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 6 2 700-500 MB RH 73 72 76 76 74 75 70 70 63 58 47 48 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 16 16 18 20 23 24 25 26 27 28 25 23 850 MB ENV VOR 10 9 12 17 14 24 32 48 77 101 126 122 95 200 MB DIV 67 76 74 50 43 68 76 100 105 141 91 67 12 LAND (KM) 390 414 428 463 507 594 674 600 536 447 342 200 7 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.4 14.6 15.0 15.3 16.1 16.9 17.9 18.9 20.0 21.1 22.6 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 102.5 103.6 104.7 106.0 107.2 109.4 111.0 112.2 112.9 113.0 112.7 112.2 111.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 12 10 8 7 6 6 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 67 68 70 64 48 35 13 23 26 8 4 3 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -4. -11. -19. -25. -33. -39. -44. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. PERSISTENCE 10. 14. 15. 14. 9. 4. 1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 13. 15. 16. 19. 22. 16. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 10. 16. 18. 18. 13. 4. -5. -17. -26. -34. -49. -59. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202009 RICK 10/17/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 35.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202009 RICK 10/17/09 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING