* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICK EP202009 10/20/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 50 43 38 34 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 50 43 38 34 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 50 43 39 36 32 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS SHEAR (KT) 22 20 14 16 23 39 52 58 79 81 78 46 N/A SHEAR DIR 254 243 223 213 220 224 232 243 238 235 236 235 N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.6 28.0 28.7 30.0 29.4 28.2 27.3 26.7 25.4 24.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 140 145 152 166 160 147 137 129 115 111 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -51.6 -52.1 -52.0 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -53.7 -55.6 -56.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 7 5 3 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 62 57 53 46 39 44 39 37 36 35 32 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 22 22 21 20 19 14 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 39 38 59 78 93 87 25 20 11 -50 -74 N/A 200 MB DIV 43 89 123 132 83 25 -1 -10 11 -6 -93 -25 N/A LAND (KM) 433 366 300 185 108 60 -245 -496 -444 -359 -445 -375 N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.9 20.4 21.3 22.1 23.8 25.6 27.4 29.0 30.0 31.2 31.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.6 111.4 111.1 110.3 109.4 107.8 105.5 103.9 101.6 99.9 99.7 98.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 9 12 12 12 13 12 11 7 6 8 N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 11 17 25 34 59 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 5. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -7. -13. -22. -37. -53. -68. -75. -80. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -7. -11. -14. -15. -14. -13. -11. -9. -8. -8. -5. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 4. 8. 12. 15. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -9. -21. -26. -27. -27. -29. -27. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -17. -22. -26. -33. -49. -59. -67. -80. -95.-100.-100. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202009 RICK 10/20/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202009 RICK 10/20/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY