* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NEKI CP032009 10/20/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 67 74 79 83 87 86 82 74 68 63 60 57 V (KT) LAND 60 67 74 79 83 87 86 82 74 68 63 60 57 V (KT) LGE mod 60 68 74 79 83 87 87 86 82 77 73 70 69 SHEAR (KT) 10 14 9 4 6 4 7 16 15 11 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 35 46 63 61 93 199 262 272 280 272 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 145 143 143 142 140 139 138 137 138 139 139 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 69 66 65 61 54 48 44 41 39 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 11 10 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 -4 -10 -15 -16 -14 -25 -13 -10 -24 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 38 47 38 31 3 7 5 -33 -24 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 979 942 921 904 897 897 903 946 1012 1117 1238 1359 1482 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.8 15.6 16.4 17.2 18.4 19.3 20.1 20.8 21.4 21.7 22.0 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 163.6 164.5 165.4 166.1 166.7 167.5 168.0 168.7 169.5 170.6 171.8 173.0 174.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 8 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 63 68 40 30 31 65 52 42 26 39 35 36 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 19. 23. 27. 26. 22. 14. 8. 3. 0. -3. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032009 NEKI 10/20/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 41% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 38% is 7.4 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032009 NEKI 10/20/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY