* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICK EP202009 10/21/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 53 47 38 29 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 42 36 30 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 55 55 44 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 23 32 37 40 53 61 73 80 84 64 80 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 219 233 231 225 231 241 240 230 234 239 244 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 29.7 30.3 30.2 29.7 28.5 27.6 26.9 26.3 24.7 24.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 164 170 168 164 151 141 134 126 109 107 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -53.4 -53.7 -54.6 -55.8 -56.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 46 48 45 47 53 51 49 37 24 30 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 12 10 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 72 66 69 64 22 -3 -3 -34 -77 -75 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 41 57 63 13 -7 18 11 -50 -26 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 215 191 37 -104 -245 -423 -230 -141 -119 -245 -280 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.2 22.0 22.8 23.7 24.5 26.4 28.1 29.7 30.6 31.9 32.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.0 107.8 106.5 105.5 104.4 101.6 99.6 96.9 95.0 94.5 92.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 13 14 14 13 12 8 7 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 49 79 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 9 CX,CY: 7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 12. 10. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -8. -16. -26. -41. -59. -75. -89. -97.-104. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 12. 16. 19. 20. 20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -8. -14. -15. -17. -17. -17. -18. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -8. -17. -26. -39. -57. -73. -91. -99.-105. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202009 RICK 10/21/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202009 RICK 10/21/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY