* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICK EP202009 10/21/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 46 42 39 34 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 41 35 31 29 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 42 35 31 29 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 33 37 39 48 53 65 69 77 69 65 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 222 231 230 230 241 241 237 227 231 229 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.3 30.0 29.5 29.1 28.4 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.2 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 165 161 156 148 141 137 136 136 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -53.5 -53.7 -55.0 -55.5 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 6 3 6 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 50 49 51 49 48 47 46 40 41 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 10 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 72 75 65 34 14 -2 -31 -56 -53 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 41 57 19 -1 -7 21 3 -45 60 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 60 -55 -171 -301 -430 -402 -219 -107 -125 -38 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.6 24.2 24.8 25.4 26.5 27.4 27.7 28.5 29.0 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.9 106.0 105.1 104.0 102.8 101.4 99.6 98.4 98.2 96.2 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 10 11 12 10 9 7 4 6 9 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 71 56 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 15 CX,CY: 11/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -8. -15. -25. -40. -57. -71. -81. -88. -94. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -13. -13. -13. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -8. -11. -16. -25. -38. -53. -67. -77. -83. -87. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202009 RICK 10/21/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202009 RICK 10/21/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY