* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NEKI CP032009 10/25/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 47 45 42 38 34 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 49 47 45 42 38 34 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 49 48 46 45 41 39 35 27 17 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 29 31 32 29 26 10 21 62 72 107 56 32 34 SHEAR DIR 249 250 251 266 283 296 226 211 229 243 262 257 340 SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.2 25.2 23.0 19.5 14.8 10.9 9.8 8.5 7.7 POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 126 125 124 116 96 67 67 70 70 64 67 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -53.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 -55.1 -55.6 -56.4 -56.7 -55.5 -51.9 -53.8 -56.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 6 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 42 43 43 44 44 50 51 64 71 66 73 73 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 13 11 9 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 1 4 -4 -20 48 96 200 72 12 143 48 -78 200 MB DIV 15 45 8 -16 -31 24 97 110 52 29 20 22 -108 LAND (KM) 533 633 733 704 684 970 1193 1702 1501 963 501 -288 -313 LAT (DEG N) 25.1 25.8 26.5 26.8 27.1 29.2 32.4 37.3 42.3 47.7 54.1 56.3 60.9 LONG(DEG W) 163.8 164.5 165.1 164.4 163.7 165.4 163.4 162.6 157.4 154.6 141.2 127.9 134.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 5 7 7 13 21 27 30 40 45 19 28 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -5. -11. -14. -17. -20. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -13. -28. -55. -78. -86. -91. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 17. 25. 35. 42. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -4. -9. -13. -12. -12. -12. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -25. -43. -69. -87. -88. -91. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032009 NEKI 10/25/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032009 NEKI 10/25/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY