* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NEKI CP032009 10/25/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 44 40 37 32 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 47 44 40 37 32 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 49 48 46 45 41 38 33 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 28 33 35 30 26 13 20 77 83 92 25 17 18 SHEAR DIR 254 256 271 279 303 243 221 205 232 242 249 278 318 SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.1 24.6 22.7 17.4 12.3 9.4 6.4 3.6 1.8 POT. INT. (KT) 130 133 127 129 124 111 94 69 69 70 70 67 68 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -55.2 -55.2 -54.7 -57.1 -53.2 -54.3 -60.0 -61.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 6 7 7 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 39 40 40 42 42 53 55 65 73 68 77 51 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 10 8 7 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -3 -19 -27 -30 27 10 194 101 141 71 -58 -102 200 MB DIV 30 6 -3 -27 -38 66 98 91 65 -25 34 -9 74 LAND (KM) 521 695 870 773 698 1119 1227 1828 1181 575 -438 -999 -322 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.6 26.4 26.8 27.2 30.0 33.0 39.3 45.7 52.9 60.6 61.0 67.1 LONG(DEG W) 163.9 165.4 166.9 165.4 163.8 166.7 162.2 162.0 154.3 152.1 130.5 105.7 109.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 16 6 14 9 15 26 35 38 52 63 30 31 HEAT CONTENT 6 13 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -5. -11. -14. -17. -20. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -15. -33. -61. -77. -81. -84. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 12. 17. 23. 34. 45. 54. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -13. -18. -19. -28. -46. -69. -76. -74. -74. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032009 NEKI 10/25/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032009 NEKI 10/25/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY