* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP972009 10/26/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 25 28 29 33 33 32 31 31 31 31 31 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 28 29 33 33 32 31 31 31 31 31 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 21 20 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 8 10 13 13 16 23 26 21 24 24 24 14 17 SHEAR DIR 204 255 260 263 251 271 271 276 263 270 283 295 290 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 149 147 147 147 147 148 147 147 146 147 147 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.9 -54.1 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 12 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 57 52 52 52 50 46 46 47 48 48 52 51 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 4 3 4 3 4 3 2 3 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -17 -25 -29 -29 5 15 0 -5 -12 -12 -18 -4 200 MB DIV 34 21 38 45 51 9 17 23 62 58 104 100 110 LAND (KM) 1636 1652 1671 1678 1685 1712 1760 1832 1881 1926 1996 2116 2272 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.3 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.3 13.9 14.9 16.0 16.7 17.0 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 171.0 171.6 172.1 172.4 172.6 173.0 173.7 174.9 176.0 177.0 178.0 179.3 180.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 5 3 2 3 5 7 7 7 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 86 89 88 84 82 81 81 94 91 85 83 87 83 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 27. 31. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -16. -19. -20. -20. -20. -20. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 8. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 9. 13. 13. 12. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP972009 INVEST 10/26/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 85.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.4 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP972009 INVEST 10/26/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY