* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952009 10/29/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 28 29 32 35 38 39 38 38 37 36 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 25 26 26 32 35 35 34 34 33 33 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 26 26 27 29 30 29 28 26 24 22 SHEAR (KT) 17 18 20 21 20 8 7 9 15 15 11 16 14 SHEAR DIR 176 175 181 193 204 200 245 244 263 287 276 261 263 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.3 28.1 26.8 26.1 26.0 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 161 163 163 161 158 161 162 158 145 131 123 121 126 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.8 -53.4 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -54.2 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 12 10 7 10 5 7 5 7 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 56 50 46 41 36 43 42 40 42 36 35 30 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 52 64 65 40 37 21 -9 -1 3 2 -2 -9 200 MB DIV 37 48 35 12 -1 23 4 0 -10 8 -28 -6 -11 LAND (KM) 146 86 26 -16 -60 -33 66 192 299 420 538 547 584 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.1 17.7 18.1 18.4 18.1 17.4 17.1 17.3 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 102.2 102.1 102.0 101.8 101.6 101.6 102.8 104.7 106.8 108.6 110.1 111.2 112.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 5 4 1 4 8 10 9 8 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 53 49 25 0 24 49 44 41 24 9 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 6. 14. 22. 29. 32. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 13. 13. 12. 11. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952009 INVEST 10/29/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952009 INVEST 10/29/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED