* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952009 10/30/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 29 34 36 40 44 49 51 53 55 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 29 34 36 40 44 49 51 53 55 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 29 29 31 33 36 38 SHEAR (KT) 20 19 16 12 11 4 6 9 5 3 5 7 9 SHEAR DIR 166 175 188 181 179 222 242 339 27 168 222 194 207 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.5 28.8 28.4 28.5 28.9 29.1 28.8 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 159 161 161 160 153 149 149 153 155 152 149 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.5 -53.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 8 10 10 8 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 53 50 43 42 45 41 44 46 44 45 43 42 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 74 62 51 60 41 48 34 19 12 7 -4 -4 200 MB DIV 55 45 14 9 17 33 13 1 7 -5 10 10 13 LAND (KM) 144 129 111 133 155 305 498 660 808 962 1031 1144 1241 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.8 17.0 16.8 16.6 15.6 14.8 14.6 14.7 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 102.3 102.4 102.4 102.6 102.8 104.2 106.3 108.7 110.8 112.6 114.4 116.3 117.9 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 1 3 6 10 11 11 9 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 52 51 49 49 49 52 33 32 34 45 55 53 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 28. 32. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 4. 9. 11. 15. 19. 24. 26. 28. 30. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952009 INVEST 10/30/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952009 INVEST 10/30/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED