* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962009 11/02/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 41 38 35 31 23 29 29 26 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 43 41 38 35 31 23 29 29 26 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 40 38 37 34 32 31 30 29 29 28 DIS SHEAR (KT) 45 53 44 30 29 26 22 27 49 60 69 75 N/A SHEAR DIR 8 354 347 325 316 327 328 219 204 229 258 266 N/A SST (C) 24.6 24.4 24.1 23.9 23.6 21.7 12.5 7.4 12.5 15.7 16.1 16.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 100 98 97 96 89 69 66 69 72 73 74 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 88 86 84 84 84 80 67 65 66 68 69 69 N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -55.5 -54.7 -54.7 -53.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 -53.9 -56.7 -58.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 46 49 51 53 62 60 53 47 42 36 39 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 19 18 17 14 12 10 8 20 25 26 25 25 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 74 72 47 21 45 54 79 -31 -119 -153 -180 N/A 200 MB DIV -20 -9 21 7 -6 25 28 50 53 24 -20 -25 N/A LAND (KM) 1239 1151 1063 981 883 696 359 411 743 1140 1563 1248 N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.0 34.8 35.6 36.6 37.6 40.4 43.6 46.1 47.4 48.1 47.7 47.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 58.0 58.3 58.5 58.3 58.1 55.7 51.8 47.8 42.9 37.5 31.9 26.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 9 10 13 19 21 18 18 18 19 20 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -13. -19. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 9. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -16. -20. -24. -28. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -1. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -22. -16. -16. -19. -25. -31. -38. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962009 INVEST 11/02/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962009 INVEST 11/02/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY