* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IDA AL112009 11/05/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 66 68 68 68 66 65 65 62 61 59 V (KT) LAND 55 48 42 37 33 29 27 29 28 28 25 24 22 V (KT) LGE mod 55 50 43 37 33 29 27 30 31 31 33 35 37 SHEAR (KT) 10 9 7 12 13 18 12 18 16 11 15 12 6 SHEAR DIR 260 243 210 225 238 245 248 254 259 268 261 252 210 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.3 28.9 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 142 144 144 147 147 151 155 157 155 148 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 133 133 135 135 137 136 141 144 144 140 132 124 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -52.7 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 5 8 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 77 79 76 78 79 75 77 77 79 73 72 70 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 11 13 12 14 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 64 70 78 88 84 94 93 64 73 66 61 80 200 MB DIV 47 37 43 69 66 85 87 74 81 57 55 56 36 LAND (KM) 26 -5 -32 -54 -75 -100 -49 57 178 223 168 83 39 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.5 13.8 14.7 15.4 16.4 17.5 18.8 20.0 21.0 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 83.3 83.6 83.8 84.0 84.2 84.5 84.6 84.8 85.1 85.4 85.6 86.1 86.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 3 1 53 55 55 0 76 68 92 96 98 94 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -17. -17. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 13. 13. 13. 11. 10. 10. 7. 6. 4. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112009 IDA 11/05/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 3.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 45% is 5.6 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112009 IDA 11/05/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY