* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IDA AL112009 11/06/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 29 26 24 24 25 28 33 39 39 42 42 41 V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 28 28 31 34 39 45 45 48 48 47 V (KT) LGE mod 35 32 30 28 28 29 28 26 25 24 22 21 19 SHEAR (KT) 11 14 14 12 13 20 22 19 27 26 26 37 42 SHEAR DIR 208 207 219 226 228 231 238 247 249 273 240 253 243 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.0 28.4 28.0 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 146 146 148 151 155 157 151 142 135 135 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 137 137 139 141 144 145 138 128 120 118 115 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -53.2 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 8 7 5 7 5 7 6 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 81 82 81 78 82 78 79 75 73 69 65 58 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 9 10 11 12 14 18 16 17 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 66 75 74 71 85 77 82 80 101 88 96 133 159 200 MB DIV 85 64 67 59 73 68 89 69 74 51 50 58 37 LAND (KM) -54 -64 -93 -67 -34 71 188 211 98 24 183 316 434 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.0 14.4 14.9 15.4 16.5 17.6 18.9 20.3 21.7 23.2 24.4 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 84.0 84.1 84.2 84.3 84.3 84.6 85.0 85.5 86.2 86.9 87.4 87.4 86.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 53 55 0 51 77 88 94 96 91 1 10 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE -8. -13. -16. -19. -20. -19. -17. -15. -11. -7. -3. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 4. 5. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -9. -11. -11. -10. -7. -2. 4. 4. 7. 7. 6. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112009 IDA 11/06/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112009 IDA 11/06/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY