* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IDA AL112009 11/06/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 33 34 40 45 46 47 47 47 41 29 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 33 34 40 45 46 47 47 47 41 29 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 32 30 28 23 SHEAR (KT) 12 15 18 17 13 17 18 25 18 34 33 61 62 SHEAR DIR 216 222 234 244 249 244 245 245 241 239 259 256 260 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.1 28.4 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.3 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 152 153 155 157 153 142 136 135 133 126 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 139 141 142 143 145 142 130 121 117 115 110 100 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.7 -54.3 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 7 6 7 5 5 4 3 3 1 700-500 MB RH 78 79 78 79 78 79 73 74 71 66 63 50 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 11 11 11 13 14 14 14 16 19 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR 59 70 61 55 56 61 79 86 128 135 153 112 111 200 MB DIV 74 74 69 87 80 59 78 51 93 50 82 -23 -1 LAND (KM) 0 23 67 124 181 247 135 24 214 357 434 364 211 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.9 16.4 17.0 17.5 18.6 20.0 21.7 23.5 24.8 25.5 26.5 27.8 LONG(DEG W) 83.9 84.0 84.1 84.4 84.6 85.2 86.0 86.9 87.6 87.6 86.9 86.2 85.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 7 9 9 8 5 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 2 73 98 104 107 91 1 10 2 0 20 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -1. -5. -8. -13. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 8. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 4. 10. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. 11. -1. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112009 IDA 11/06/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112009 IDA 11/06/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY