* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902010 02/17/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 41 38 37 29 23 19 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 41 38 37 29 23 19 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 23 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 10 12 19 26 25 37 29 38 25 43 39 47 47 SHEAR DIR 182 205 203 188 209 205 196 216 235 244 254 248 265 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.4 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 151 151 150 150 147 145 145 145 141 136 134 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -50.1 -50.1 -50.8 -49.9 -50.6 -49.8 -51.0 -50.4 -50.4 -50.6 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 85 78 70 69 61 62 63 61 56 54 47 44 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 15 15 11 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 92 113 120 121 110 128 128 114 109 86 57 46 200 MB DIV 159 143 153 152 100 109 95 133 98 41 49 -12 -1 LAND (KM) 2065 1950 1836 1761 1687 1630 1655 1612 1511 1389 1283 1216 1224 LAT (DEG N) 2.5 3.5 4.4 4.8 5.2 5.1 4.4 4.6 5.5 6.7 7.8 8.7 9.1 LONG(DEG W) 164.5 164.1 163.7 163.0 162.3 160.7 159.1 158.1 158.0 158.4 158.9 159.7 160.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 8 8 8 8 7 4 5 6 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 143 146 148 141 132 129 118 110 90 63 51 43 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 717 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 29. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -7. -11. -12. -12. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -15. -18. -20. -22. -23. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -17. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 2. 5. 8. 10. 14. 15. 13. 11. 11. 11. 10. 7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 16. 13. 12. 4. -2. -6. -10. -13. -17. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902010 INVEST 02/17/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 141.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.1/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 142.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 2.2/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.5 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902010 INVEST 02/17/10 12 UTC ## ## ERR=3, IR & SHIPS DATA > 12h APART