* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 09/09/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 75 76 75 71 61 46 30 27 20 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 75 74 75 76 75 71 61 46 30 27 20 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 74 73 73 72 67 58 48 40 36 37 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 6 13 10 19 29 57 64 40 31 24 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 4 9 10 14 17 16 5 5 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 165 182 184 198 224 222 240 235 226 219 209 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.3 27.3 26.8 24.7 21.5 20.4 15.6 14.1 13.2 12.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 130 131 127 109 93 89 78 75 71 68 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 112 115 113 100 88 84 75 73 68 66 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -51.0 -50.9 -50.6 -50.5 -49.8 -48.7 -47.2 -46.4 -46.2 -46.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 59 56 50 47 41 40 43 53 67 79 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 31 30 34 34 35 35 38 36 28 32 29 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 -8 -13 -19 29 163 179 198 282 310 275 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 22 110 112 79 49 42 35 14 47 56 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 9 -12 4 -3 13 25 -83 -60 -2 31 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 583 573 508 489 477 444 863 1388 543 223 225 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.6 36.8 38.0 39.2 40.4 42.7 45.8 49.8 54.4 58.1 60.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 69.4 68.2 66.9 64.2 61.5 53.1 41.8 29.8 18.3 9.7 4.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 20 24 29 38 44 43 36 24 18 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 9 1 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 17 CX,CY: 6/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -3. -8. -14. -21. -26. -31. -34. -35. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -6. -9. -8. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -10. -8. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -20. -23. -26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -15. -19. -23. -26. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 3. -4. -1. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 8. 11. 14. 15. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 0. -4. -14. -29. -45. -48. -55. -59. -61. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 09/09/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/09/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 09/09/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 5( 10) 5( 14) 4( 18) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)