* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092011 09/22/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 72 77 81 85 90 94 97 94 93 90 89 86 V (KT) LAND 65 72 77 81 85 90 94 97 94 93 90 89 86 V (KT) LGE mod 65 73 80 86 91 97 99 101 100 97 93 91 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 8 5 3 7 6 6 7 9 12 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 -2 -1 0 -5 -2 -4 -3 -5 -6 -7 -5 SHEAR DIR 50 39 66 117 159 142 143 181 249 204 218 202 236 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 159 158 154 154 153 152 150 148 145 139 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.4 -52.9 -53.3 -52.3 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 8 7 9 8 11 9 11 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 72 71 71 72 69 67 59 52 52 47 43 41 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 7 5 4 5 6 6 9 8 10 10 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -15 -12 4 4 5 20 39 32 39 43 58 71 200 MB DIV 24 37 55 58 55 65 27 32 15 7 12 22 6 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 0 -4 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 137 137 136 146 161 193 245 309 404 500 491 509 562 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.6 17.2 17.7 18.1 18.4 18.6 18.9 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 98.6 99.4 100.2 101.1 102.0 103.9 105.7 107.3 108.7 110.0 111.1 112.4 113.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 7 7 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 43 39 36 39 40 37 34 22 13 12 29 24 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 5. 5. 7. 7. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 16. 20. 25. 29. 32. 29. 28. 25. 24. 21. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092011 HILARY 09/22/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092011 HILARY 09/22/11 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING