* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC PROXY USED * * BERYL AL022012 05/30/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 39 37 35 34 36 36 31 26 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 40 41 39 36 35 37 38 32 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 34 35 36 36 37 38 38 37 37 39 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 13 18 21 23 19 24 28 39 32 25 19 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 4 0 1 -1 1 10 11 9 4 7 SHEAR DIR 245 249 233 221 229 238 269 271 276 239 208 215 233 SST (C) 23.6 24.1 24.3 23.4 23.4 22.2 23.0 22.2 17.7 17.7 15.8 14.6 13.4 POT. INT. (KT) 96 100 102 97 97 91 97 93 79 78 74 72 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 85 89 91 88 88 83 89 87 75 73 70 68 67 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -51.7 -51.4 -51.3 -50.2 -48.2 -48.7 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 55 52 52 46 41 43 49 52 45 49 46 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 16 16 17 18 16 15 14 20 28 34 31 28 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -20 -4 14 11 12 42 75 123 198 238 222 89 200 MB DIV 6 10 46 39 11 27 -16 0 -4 0 37 25 29 700-850 TADV 3 -4 -4 -6 -15 -7 -4 -3 -45 -41 -18 -5 -7 LAND (KM) -23 18 41 64 207 485 601 743 716 972 1341 1645 1196 LAT (DEG N) 32.7 33.3 33.9 34.9 35.8 37.3 38.3 39.4 40.9 42.4 44.0 45.9 48.0 LONG(DEG W) 80.6 79.1 77.5 75.6 73.6 69.0 63.5 56.7 49.2 42.4 36.3 30.8 25.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 17 19 19 21 25 28 28 25 23 21 20 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 11 CX,CY: 10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 5. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 6. 7. 9. 8. 5. 0. -5. -7. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 16. 18. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -14. -18. -22. -25. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 3. 11. 15. 12. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 7. 5. 4. 6. 6. 1. -4. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022012 BERYL 05/30/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022012 BERYL 05/30/12 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022012 BERYL 05/30/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)