* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102012 08/22/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 41 43 46 43 49 51 55 56 55 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 41 43 46 43 49 51 55 56 55 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 37 38 40 40 40 40 42 48 57 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 9 11 8 12 15 23 4 5 14 21 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 7 8 14 12 18 3 6 -1 -4 1 0 SHEAR DIR 201 215 219 225 209 228 213 254 146 173 41 14 4 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.5 27.8 28.3 28.7 28.9 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 133 131 131 129 132 136 143 149 153 159 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 133 132 130 129 126 129 132 139 145 147 151 147 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -53.5 -54.0 -53.1 -53.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 8 8 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 59 55 56 56 55 55 54 56 56 54 52 49 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 17 17 17 18 16 18 14 16 16 16 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 67 61 49 46 44 38 36 30 24 7 -6 -26 -29 200 MB DIV 13 34 41 49 58 33 28 6 33 -22 -34 -34 40 700-850 TADV -4 -5 0 5 6 12 15 16 3 10 0 -4 4 LAND (KM) 1786 1760 1689 1617 1559 1450 1418 1375 1233 995 814 803 936 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.4 13.9 14.4 14.9 15.8 16.9 18.0 19.3 20.9 22.9 25.0 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 37.0 38.3 39.5 40.9 42.3 45.1 47.7 50.6 53.6 56.6 59.6 62.6 65.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 14 14 14 14 14 15 16 17 17 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 15 25 27 24 27 30 38 55 32 52 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 488 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -11. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -2. -5. -4. -5. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 16. 13. 19. 21. 25. 26. 25. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102012 TEN 08/22/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102012 TEN 08/22/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)