* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092012 08/24/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 52 56 61 71 78 83 83 85 83 78 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 52 55 60 40 39 44 44 47 45 39 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 47 51 48 62 42 39 46 53 60 65 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 11 10 7 9 15 13 8 13 12 15 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -5 -3 0 -1 -1 4 0 5 -1 7 2 9 SHEAR DIR 315 314 322 309 234 261 218 203 180 153 135 133 174 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.7 30.0 30.2 30.1 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 146 148 153 161 159 159 164 169 171 171 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 142 142 144 149 155 149 147 149 150 153 151 138 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.0 -51.7 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -51.0 -51.1 -50.4 -50.4 -49.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 7 10 700-500 MB RH 66 66 67 61 63 64 63 59 59 58 55 56 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 16 17 18 19 17 21 21 23 22 26 25 23 850 MB ENV VOR 83 77 87 89 95 80 88 82 100 90 74 50 45 200 MB DIV 82 47 46 76 99 65 88 33 1 16 29 -1 32 700-850 TADV -4 -11 -6 0 4 11 13 12 9 5 7 4 4 LAND (KM) 187 155 109 22 0 0 -44 15 77 126 156 213 86 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.7 18.3 19.8 21.1 22.5 23.8 25.1 26.2 27.8 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 68.0 69.3 70.5 71.8 73.0 75.4 77.4 79.3 81.1 82.6 83.8 85.1 86.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 13 13 13 12 11 11 10 8 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 55 55 67 81 65 48 78 91 76 46 38 31 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 23. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 5. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 31. 38. 43. 43. 45. 43. 38. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092012 ISAAC 08/24/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 64.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092012 ISAAC 08/24/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)