* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP112012 09/13/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 53 55 57 59 56 50 39 29 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 53 55 57 59 56 50 39 29 19 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 50 51 52 50 46 42 37 31 25 19 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 19 19 17 12 12 10 7 7 12 11 13 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -7 -6 0 0 -1 1 -3 -2 -3 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 4 347 341 351 349 305 300 345 17 62 136 180 201 SST (C) 28.4 27.9 27.5 27.1 26.7 26.1 25.3 24.5 23.1 21.5 20.1 19.7 19.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 143 138 134 130 124 116 108 93 76 60 56 57 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 8 8 6 4 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 69 66 61 59 56 50 47 45 43 34 39 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 12 12 12 13 14 16 16 17 15 14 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -7 -7 -1 15 14 17 9 -12 -31 -41 -44 -56 200 MB DIV 57 46 36 42 40 40 13 7 -29 -32 0 10 -2 700-850 TADV -5 -1 -4 -5 -9 1 -4 -3 0 2 4 3 0 LAND (KM) 339 394 444 403 376 378 413 462 505 560 685 712 657 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.6 21.8 23.0 24.1 24.9 25.3 25.5 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 108.1 109.0 109.8 110.5 111.2 112.7 114.7 116.4 118.0 119.6 121.3 121.7 121.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 9 11 9 9 8 5 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 20 16 15 12 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. 1. -3. -7. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 11. 12. 9. 8. 5. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 11. 5. -6. -16. -26. -36. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112012 KRISTY 09/13/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)