* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122012 09/15/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 39 41 49 52 55 49 46 38 28 19 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 39 41 49 52 55 49 46 38 28 19 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 38 41 40 37 32 27 22 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 7 6 8 6 10 11 15 17 22 31 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 -4 -4 -4 -4 -3 -2 3 3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 36 43 56 22 350 251 269 214 229 216 230 248 260 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.3 27.7 26.8 25.4 24.0 23.2 23.2 23.1 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 150 148 146 140 131 117 102 92 92 92 90 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 59 60 63 64 64 68 65 64 62 57 49 38 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 16 15 17 17 19 18 19 17 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 40 43 49 55 47 51 50 43 27 10 1 -2 0 200 MB DIV 69 47 59 44 44 45 37 33 42 44 15 4 -8 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 0 2 8 8 8 7 3 0 LAND (KM) 1672 1709 1746 1772 1801 1850 1836 1812 1822 1868 1956 2059 2080 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 8 6 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 17 18 23 18 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 17. 18. 18. 17. 16. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 3. 2. 6. 6. 10. 7. 9. 6. 1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 9. 11. 19. 22. 25. 19. 16. 8. -2. -11. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122012 TWELVE 09/15/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)