* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP122012 09/18/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 66 59 51 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 69 66 59 51 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 69 65 59 52 38 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 14 17 18 23 29 37 37 37 39 46 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 1 4 4 0 -5 -5 -2 -2 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 246 238 237 232 230 239 245 262 254 260 249 256 261 SST (C) 25.3 24.5 23.7 22.9 22.3 21.8 21.9 22.3 22.9 23.3 23.6 23.8 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 116 107 99 90 84 78 79 84 91 95 99 101 105 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 59 61 58 55 56 50 40 33 31 31 31 36 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 18 18 16 16 12 9 7 5 3 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -8 -16 -20 -24 -34 -37 -38 -44 -37 -39 -29 -39 200 MB DIV 28 34 15 12 20 7 -25 -27 -2 0 31 -8 1 700-850 TADV 3 11 9 10 12 9 6 4 5 2 6 12 8 LAND (KM) 1664 1648 1636 1640 1649 1710 1826 1958 2028 1820 1603 1385 1168 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.7 19.4 20.1 20.7 21.4 21.5 21.3 20.8 20.2 19.4 19.0 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 127.3 127.8 128.2 128.8 129.3 130.4 131.7 133.4 135.4 137.4 139.5 141.6 143.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 6 7 9 10 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -11. -20. -28. -34. -39. -40. -40. -41. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -15. -20. -24. -28. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -11. -19. -40. -59. -74. -89. -98.-106.-112.-115. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122012 LANE 09/18/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)