* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP132012 09/24/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 106 106 104 99 88 76 64 48 41 29 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 100 106 106 104 99 88 76 64 48 41 29 20 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 100 106 106 102 96 83 69 58 49 42 36 32 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 1 5 8 6 12 14 21 16 13 18 23 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 9 8 10 12 11 4 -2 -1 1 7 1 7 SHEAR DIR 110 243 191 196 214 197 213 196 227 211 240 216 227 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.5 25.9 25.3 24.8 24.6 24.7 25.3 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 140 136 132 126 120 114 109 106 107 114 126 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -50.3 -50.7 -50.4 -51.3 -50.8 -51.2 -51.5 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 61 61 65 60 62 58 55 52 48 47 47 45 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 27 23 26 26 27 27 26 21 21 18 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR 7 17 13 15 19 18 26 41 43 25 14 11 11 200 MB DIV 62 52 -67 -68 -13 56 49 59 30 26 31 32 61 700-850 TADV 0 5 0 4 4 4 2 4 6 0 0 -5 -3 LAND (KM) 654 647 652 642 637 611 555 482 407 355 328 240 111 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.1 19.9 20.7 21.6 22.6 23.5 24.3 25.0 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.2 113.9 114.3 114.6 115.0 115.4 115.5 115.5 115.5 115.5 115.0 114.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 5 5 4 5 4 5 4 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -5. -11. -19. -27. -35. -41. -45. -49. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 10. 10. 6. 4. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -7. -7. -11. -12. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 6. 4. -1. -12. -24. -36. -52. -59. -71. -80. -91. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132012 MIRIAM 09/24/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)