* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAFAEL AL172012 10/15/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 64 67 67 69 73 73 67 56 51 50 46 V (KT) LAND 60 63 64 67 67 69 73 73 67 56 51 50 46 V (KT) LGE mod 60 64 66 67 68 66 63 59 54 48 46 47 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 28 20 24 25 24 24 32 26 45 29 22 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 7 5 4 5 9 8 13 4 2 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 237 247 247 254 250 215 219 202 217 242 271 285 278 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.7 27.4 26.0 25.5 19.9 18.2 16.1 15.4 16.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 157 154 149 133 119 115 86 82 76 71 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 142 142 139 137 125 111 106 80 77 72 67 67 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.4 -52.0 -52.0 -53.3 -52.5 -54.0 -53.5 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 67 68 66 68 67 65 54 38 31 33 49 35 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 25 22 25 25 28 32 34 32 28 27 30 31 850 MB ENV VOR 73 78 67 79 79 80 75 58 62 121 204 175 204 200 MB DIV 49 78 48 73 102 128 139 129 57 46 57 3 -15 700-850 TADV 27 20 27 38 44 31 59 37 8 -14 28 28 0 LAND (KM) 410 505 602 724 841 1235 1138 832 447 686 1403 1230 1081 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 23.0 23.9 25.0 26.1 29.4 33.9 38.3 42.8 46.5 49.3 49.8 48.3 LONG(DEG W) 65.1 65.3 65.5 65.5 65.5 63.6 60.9 57.3 51.7 43.9 33.8 27.5 24.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 15 22 26 29 32 35 28 16 13 HEAT CONTENT 61 44 42 50 34 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -16. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 5. 7. 5. 1. 0. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 7. 7. 9. 13. 13. 7. -4. -9. -10. -14. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172012 RAFAEL 10/15/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172012 RAFAEL 10/15/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 3( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)