* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDREA AL012013 06/07/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 43 43 42 36 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 34 35 36 36 31 31 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 34 31 34 30 28 27 24 21 18 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 30 34 37 40 58 76 76 67 67 69 64 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 0 5 3 -6 -1 7 5 6 4 5 SHEAR DIR 208 198 210 220 225 252 257 264 264 249 242 241 247 SST (C) 23.3 22.0 17.0 14.2 11.1 7.4 5.0 10.0 16.2 16.4 15.3 13.6 11.5 POT. INT. (KT) 98 92 78 74 71 70 69 71 76 76 74 73 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 92 87 74 72 70 69 69 69 73 72 71 70 70 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -53.2 -50.8 -48.7 -50.5 -52.1 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 71 68 66 66 62 54 52 48 44 43 43 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 21 21 22 23 23 20 17 23 25 27 26 850 MB ENV VOR 85 109 117 112 110 41 55 98 123 131 86 -26 -73 200 MB DIV 96 122 95 65 61 35 -12 -11 15 21 30 29 47 700-850 TADV 11 10 -3 -5 9 39 -74 -82 -69 -10 14 -12 -16 LAND (KM) -81 -113 0 98 33 -33 9 637 1312 1574 995 544 66 LAT (DEG N) 33.5 35.6 37.6 39.9 42.1 45.5 47.8 47.5 45.3 44.3 44.7 46.3 49.7 LONG(DEG W) 80.2 77.9 75.6 73.0 70.3 63.2 53.6 44.3 36.0 28.6 21.3 14.2 6.3 STM SPEED (KT) 25 28 29 30 30 33 32 31 29 26 26 29 31 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 23 CX,CY: 13/ 19 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. -5. -4. -5. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 1. -11. -22. -32. -39. -45. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 13. 16. 18. 20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -26. -29. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -4. 2. 3. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -4. -20. -37. -42. -49. -55. -62. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012013 ANDREA 06/07/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.3/ -0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012013 ANDREA 06/07/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED