* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032013 06/24/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 61 69 78 81 73 59 49 38 30 23 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 61 69 78 81 73 59 49 38 30 23 V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 56 60 63 68 67 61 51 40 32 26 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 7 6 7 7 13 13 14 13 7 5 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -1 4 8 0 7 2 4 0 SHEAR DIR 7 38 48 74 86 88 86 72 88 96 80 36 344 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.0 28.3 26.9 25.6 24.1 23.0 21.9 22.0 22.1 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 159 155 148 134 120 105 93 82 83 83 85 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -51.4 -51.9 -52.0 -50.4 -51.4 -50.7 -51.2 -51.1 -51.4 -51.4 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 88 88 86 88 87 85 82 77 72 68 64 62 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 19 21 21 24 26 27 25 21 19 15 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 40 43 58 70 76 100 137 152 127 112 84 81 74 200 MB DIV 122 125 153 162 166 145 28 21 5 5 -25 -15 -6 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -1 -6 -6 -5 -7 2 -2 1 3 6 2 LAND (KM) 538 527 521 533 572 653 711 818 946 1132 1323 1526 1726 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.6 15.2 15.8 16.4 17.3 18.0 18.8 19.5 20.1 20.6 20.7 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 105.5 106.4 107.3 108.4 109.4 111.9 114.4 116.9 119.5 122.3 125.4 127.9 130.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 13 12 12 13 14 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 59 57 44 25 14 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 10. 11. 9. 6. 3. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -15. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 13. 7. 5. -1. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 24. 33. 36. 28. 14. 4. -7. -15. -22. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032013 COSME 06/24/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 145.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)