* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032013 06/24/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 62 69 74 81 75 69 53 42 32 24 16 V (KT) LAND 50 56 62 69 74 81 75 69 53 42 32 24 16 V (KT) LGE mod 50 56 62 66 70 72 67 59 49 39 32 26 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 5 9 13 13 12 17 13 8 11 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -4 -2 -1 7 -1 7 2 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 33 36 18 81 104 103 90 87 110 78 51 47 29 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 28.8 28.2 27.6 26.4 25.0 23.7 22.6 22.1 22.2 22.4 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 153 147 141 128 114 101 90 84 84 86 87 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.3 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -51.1 -51.3 -50.9 -51.3 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 89 86 86 86 85 83 81 78 70 64 61 59 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 22 23 25 26 29 25 25 21 18 15 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 41 58 63 73 89 120 148 150 129 107 87 87 76 200 MB DIV 149 157 151 146 127 106 36 26 7 -8 -5 -10 -12 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -3 -7 -1 0 0 3 0 1 7 0 5 LAND (KM) 520 536 567 637 711 716 790 901 1097 1267 1427 1623 1827 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.3 18.2 18.9 19.5 20.0 20.4 20.4 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 106.5 107.7 108.8 110.0 111.2 113.4 115.7 118.3 121.3 124.1 126.5 128.8 130.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 14 14 12 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 55 40 22 15 12 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. -1. -3. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 7. 7. 2. -2. -6. -8. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 19. 24. 31. 25. 19. 3. -8. -18. -26. -34. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032013 COSME 06/24/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 146.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%)