* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/01/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 50 52 57 60 60 60 60 59 60 54 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 50 52 57 60 60 60 60 59 60 54 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 45 48 51 56 57 56 54 52 50 48 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 10 11 12 14 11 8 7 1 3 9 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -5 -4 -3 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 0 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 160 130 134 139 120 136 101 115 114 76 92 160 154 SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.8 28.1 27.7 27.2 26.5 26.1 25.8 25.5 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 159 159 156 151 142 137 133 126 121 119 116 113 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -52.2 -52.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 9 7 8 6 7 5 6 4 4 700-500 MB RH 66 60 61 62 62 62 61 65 62 65 64 62 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 11 11 9 10 11 11 11 13 13 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 19 15 13 18 26 29 37 43 60 51 58 66 62 200 MB DIV 37 27 17 11 38 -24 22 0 15 2 14 -3 1 700-850 TADV -3 -8 -3 -1 -4 2 4 4 1 -1 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 213 198 196 174 169 206 249 301 369 435 446 467 510 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.0 17.4 17.9 18.4 18.9 18.9 18.9 19.0 19.0 18.9 18.9 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 104.1 104.6 105.1 105.7 106.2 107.0 107.5 108.1 108.9 109.6 110.4 111.4 112.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 3 2 3 4 3 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 17 14 9 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 18. 18. 17. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 17. 20. 20. 20. 20. 19. 20. 14. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/01/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 3.9%)