* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/04/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 44 41 40 40 37 33 31 28 22 21 17 V (KT) LAND 50 46 44 41 40 40 37 33 31 28 22 21 17 V (KT) LGE mod 50 45 43 41 40 39 37 35 33 30 27 24 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 9 10 17 17 18 17 14 13 17 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 0 -2 -6 0 0 2 0 -1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 102 94 137 138 132 133 120 115 112 106 115 88 93 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.1 26.4 25.7 25.2 25.1 24.7 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 139 139 138 137 133 126 119 113 113 110 101 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -51.6 -52.1 -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 8 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 56 54 53 52 50 51 50 47 49 51 50 49 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 13 13 14 13 12 12 11 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 53 58 50 63 58 54 44 49 47 46 31 29 13 200 MB DIV 31 22 4 -11 -5 -5 33 -1 5 -14 -3 -2 -26 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 0 -2 -1 -3 -1 -4 1 LAND (KM) 392 447 502 553 604 656 681 704 753 822 891 984 1138 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.4 17.1 17.1 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.3 18.2 18.5 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 108.2 108.7 109.1 109.7 110.2 111.2 112.4 113.7 115.0 116.2 117.2 119.0 121.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 3 3 5 5 6 6 2 2 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -3. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -9. -10. -10. -13. -17. -18. -22. -27. -29. -33. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/04/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)