* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP052013 07/07/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 69 68 66 60 49 36 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 69 69 68 66 60 49 36 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 70 69 67 64 55 44 33 24 18 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 2 3 3 4 10 8 8 10 10 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 -1 2 0 0 1 2 1 1 2 1 SHEAR DIR 24 30 87 60 40 120 146 157 154 171 180 184 181 SST (C) 28.0 27.5 26.8 26.0 25.1 23.4 21.5 20.1 20.2 20.1 19.7 19.3 19.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 139 131 123 114 96 77 62 62 61 60 60 60 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -51.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 70 70 69 66 68 67 66 61 58 51 45 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 58 43 36 36 20 16 14 4 -4 6 3 22 22 200 MB DIV 31 26 31 40 19 5 17 0 2 -6 3 3 0 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -6 -12 -6 -7 -2 0 2 3 1 1 LAND (KM) 137 159 200 282 206 113 157 235 372 476 589 714 873 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.5 20.1 20.7 21.2 22.2 23.4 24.1 24.5 24.7 24.7 24.9 25.0 LONG(DEG W) 106.2 106.9 107.6 108.4 109.2 110.8 112.6 114.5 116.5 118.3 119.8 121.4 123.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -5. -14. -23. -32. -37. -41. -45. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -4. -10. -21. -34. -46. -55. -63. -68. -74. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052013 ERICK 07/07/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.9%)