* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL042013 07/26/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 42 41 41 42 42 47 48 47 47 49 45 V (KT) LAND 45 43 42 41 41 42 42 47 48 47 47 49 45 V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 42 41 40 40 40 41 43 45 46 46 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 15 13 15 10 15 14 22 25 27 19 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 6 5 0 3 3 2 4 5 5 5 0 SHEAR DIR 221 230 227 230 248 231 230 230 221 224 239 248 244 SST (C) 26.0 26.3 26.6 27.0 27.2 27.6 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 117 120 123 128 130 135 138 139 137 134 133 134 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 118 122 127 129 134 136 135 132 127 124 123 124 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 13 13 13 13 700-500 MB RH 56 52 50 49 47 44 43 43 43 44 44 45 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 16 16 15 15 14 16 16 15 14 14 9 850 MB ENV VOR 24 23 22 17 10 0 -18 -22 -30 -31 -21 -10 -12 200 MB DIV 20 33 44 -2 -17 3 -2 27 22 5 26 8 -11 700-850 TADV 20 30 24 11 9 5 -4 -5 -2 -4 -11 -11 -11 LAND (KM) 1853 1756 1663 1576 1506 1282 1006 654 344 211 164 122 144 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.7 19.4 19.9 20.2 20.4 20.7 20.9 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 40.5 42.4 44.3 46.4 48.4 52.3 56.2 59.7 63.1 66.1 68.7 71.0 72.9 STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 19 20 19 19 18 16 15 13 12 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 3 3 3 12 9 25 19 24 16 30 33 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 4. 0. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042013 DORIAN 07/26/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042013 DORIAN 07/26/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042013 DORIAN 07/26/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)