* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/02/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 79 81 80 77 71 68 65 60 55 50 46 V (KT) LAND 75 77 79 81 80 77 71 68 65 60 55 50 46 V (KT) LGE mod 75 76 75 75 74 71 68 64 62 61 58 54 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 1 3 4 4 7 15 7 2 8 13 8 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 0 4 5 0 1 7 7 3 5 5 SHEAR DIR 224 250 88 82 262 296 324 6 203 146 175 150 206 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.3 27.7 27.7 27.5 26.9 26.4 26.4 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 138 135 134 136 140 140 138 132 127 127 129 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 59 61 63 63 62 63 67 68 71 71 71 67 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 15 16 15 16 15 17 16 16 17 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -23 -13 -7 -4 -3 -13 -2 -3 11 36 50 46 200 MB DIV 19 28 23 71 50 46 43 47 51 51 52 61 51 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 LAND (KM) 1909 1989 2056 2114 2174 2292 2317 2186 2053 1900 1728 1561 1416 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.2 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 126.9 127.9 128.8 129.7 130.6 132.1 133.6 134.9 136.2 137.7 139.4 141.2 142.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 7 8 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 3 2 2 2 7 4 4 6 1 2 7 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 8. 9. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 2. 4. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 5. 2. -4. -7. -10. -15. -20. -25. -29. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/02/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/02/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##