* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082013 08/03/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 44 55 62 64 63 59 54 51 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 35 44 55 62 64 63 59 54 51 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 31 36 42 47 49 48 46 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 8 10 8 5 4 3 6 5 10 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 0 -5 -3 -3 -2 -4 -5 -1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 337 346 21 32 41 67 13 325 305 289 283 281 315 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.7 27.3 26.0 25.1 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 149 148 146 144 142 140 141 137 123 114 113 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 73 74 75 75 74 75 75 77 72 73 71 71 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 10 11 11 11 12 13 14 14 14 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR -12 4 8 14 31 46 42 42 36 32 19 24 18 200 MB DIV 39 75 84 68 53 85 108 119 96 98 54 58 24 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 -4 -4 -2 -2 4 6 13 LAND (KM) 1741 1798 1857 1920 1986 2107 2225 2315 2375 2158 1975 1771 1562 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.0 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 13.0 13.5 14.4 15.4 16.4 17.1 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 123.2 124.0 124.7 125.6 126.4 127.9 129.4 131.2 133.1 134.9 136.4 138.2 140.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 7 8 10 10 10 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 10 14 16 10 6 10 7 6 8 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 29. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 19. 30. 37. 39. 38. 34. 29. 26. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082013 EIGHT 08/03/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 EIGHT 08/03/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##