* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/05/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 30 33 36 39 42 43 45 47 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 30 33 36 39 42 43 45 47 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 22 21 21 22 23 25 27 29 30 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 11 13 14 10 11 10 11 12 14 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -4 -6 -6 -6 -5 -3 -1 0 1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 141 146 132 134 139 120 106 81 91 72 70 66 76 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 134 134 134 134 134 133 133 135 136 135 134 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.5 -53.0 -53.8 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 61 62 62 60 60 58 57 55 56 54 54 52 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 0 5 11 13 18 16 13 9 5 -7 -17 -17 -8 200 MB DIV 35 23 33 44 33 27 53 41 44 39 46 24 30 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 1949 1888 1829 1762 1698 1563 1424 1261 1108 985 883 784 713 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 13.7 13.3 13.1 12.8 12.5 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.5 12.5 12.6 LONG(DEG W) 137.4 138.2 138.9 139.7 140.5 142.1 143.7 145.5 147.3 149.0 150.7 152.5 154.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 8 10 11 14 11 5 5 8 14 9 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 18. 20. 22. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/05/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/05/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##