* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/07/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 68 63 58 50 42 34 28 23 19 18 19 V (KT) LAND 75 72 68 63 58 50 42 34 28 23 19 18 19 V (KT) LGE mod 75 72 68 63 59 51 46 43 40 38 37 36 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 9 8 6 4 6 11 7 9 11 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 1 -2 -3 -7 -4 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 309 268 261 275 275 201 217 224 254 244 256 254 264 SST (C) 26.4 25.8 25.3 25.1 25.1 25.3 25.5 26.0 26.3 26.6 26.6 26.8 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 127 121 116 114 114 116 119 124 128 131 132 135 137 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 66 66 65 66 65 62 54 51 50 49 49 51 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 14 13 13 12 10 9 7 5 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -39 -33 -22 -17 -2 -1 12 10 1 0 5 7 200 MB DIV 1 35 21 12 11 32 -1 -18 -25 -25 -30 -13 -18 700-850 TADV 7 7 6 5 8 0 2 -5 -1 -1 0 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 2077 1983 1890 1788 1686 1481 1283 1067 856 660 492 540 847 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.0 17.4 17.6 17.7 17.5 17.1 16.5 15.8 15.2 15.0 14.2 13.1 LONG(DEG W) 135.4 136.2 137.0 138.0 138.9 140.9 142.9 145.2 147.7 150.5 153.4 156.9 160.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 3 2 2 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -17. -19. -20. -21. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -12. -17. -25. -33. -41. -47. -52. -56. -57. -56. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/07/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/07/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##