* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/08/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 18 17 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 4 4 2 8 10 15 16 15 12 14 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 0 -2 0 2 2 0 -1 -1 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 235 255 290 311 261 262 213 218 230 252 259 252 269 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.8 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 129 128 127 126 127 128 128 128 129 131 133 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.4 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 56 58 60 59 60 57 55 57 55 54 54 53 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 42 43 32 20 11 -5 -14 -5 -8 -3 0 7 -7 200 MB DIV 54 63 49 39 28 26 -11 -12 -5 -24 -1 -6 -7 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 -1 1 0 1 6 5 LAND (KM) 1200 1098 997 903 810 663 567 504 428 389 424 541 681 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.6 14.8 15.2 15.5 15.9 16.0 15.7 15.5 15.4 15.4 15.3 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 144.9 145.9 146.8 147.6 148.4 149.8 150.9 152.2 153.7 155.4 157.2 159.1 161.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 8 8 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 15 17 13 11 8 6 1 2 1 1 2 6 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. -18. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -6. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/08/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/08/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##