* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/08/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 17 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 4 8 7 11 12 12 11 9 8 5 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 0 0 -1 0 -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 39 43 235 238 236 214 214 214 221 208 241 255 272 SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 126 126 126 127 130 131 131 134 135 138 140 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 57 56 55 53 54 50 51 49 51 51 52 50 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 17 11 -2 -3 -6 -16 -5 -7 5 9 15 6 10 200 MB DIV 30 20 4 8 2 -17 -34 -20 -18 1 -3 -9 -1 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 2 1 0 0 1 0 3 0 2 3 LAND (KM) 991 902 813 751 689 597 547 507 523 635 826 1054 1233 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.3 15.6 15.8 15.9 15.8 15.2 14.6 14.2 13.8 13.5 13.3 13.1 LONG(DEG W) 146.8 147.6 148.3 148.9 149.5 150.7 152.2 154.0 156.0 158.3 161.0 163.9 166.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 7 8 10 11 12 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 13 7 8 8 7 6 1 3 2 18 14 18 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -4. -3. 0. 4. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/08/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/08/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##