* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/08/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 87 81 76 63 49 39 31 26 21 19 18 V (KT) LAND 90 90 87 81 76 63 49 39 31 26 21 19 18 V (KT) LGE mod 90 90 86 81 76 66 58 52 46 40 36 33 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 8 10 9 8 10 10 11 13 13 11 9 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 -1 0 2 2 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 168 143 184 210 202 203 256 246 247 235 252 244 278 SST (C) 25.2 25.2 25.3 25.5 25.7 26.2 26.4 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 115 115 116 118 121 126 129 133 133 134 134 136 139 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -52.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 10 9 700-500 MB RH 65 66 63 58 53 48 47 47 44 45 44 45 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 13 13 13 11 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -6 -1 -5 6 19 17 15 10 22 22 13 9 200 MB DIV 21 28 28 22 15 2 -24 -37 -22 -2 -2 7 -10 700-850 TADV 3 2 3 1 2 1 3 -2 0 -2 -2 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 1696 1604 1513 1415 1318 1093 868 654 507 556 751 994 1172 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.1 17.0 16.8 16.6 16.1 15.6 15.1 14.6 14.1 13.6 13.3 13.1 LONG(DEG W) 138.9 139.8 140.7 141.7 142.7 145.1 147.7 150.7 154.0 157.1 160.0 163.0 165.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 12 14 16 16 15 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 7 10 14 3 7 16 14 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -10. -16. -20. -24. -27. -30. -32. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -3. -9. -14. -27. -41. -51. -59. -64. -69. -71. -72. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/08/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/08/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##