* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/10/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 38 36 33 29 24 21 20 20 19 20 22 V (KT) LAND 45 41 38 36 33 29 24 21 20 20 19 20 22 V (KT) LGE mod 45 41 38 36 35 32 30 28 26 26 25 25 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 10 11 13 15 12 10 12 10 9 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -3 -4 -5 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 194 220 235 246 245 262 265 264 262 265 240 243 238 SST (C) 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.2 27.5 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 135 136 136 136 137 138 141 143 144 144 144 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 45 44 42 41 42 44 47 46 46 46 47 49 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 4 3 0 -6 -3 12 19 9 17 16 14 17 17 200 MB DIV -16 -29 -32 -34 -36 -24 -10 -3 11 -9 0 -13 7 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -1 -1 -5 -1 -2 -1 1 2 4 7 5 LAND (KM) 1102 989 892 795 705 633 784 1040 1268 1484 1739 1943 2071 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.1 13.7 13.6 13.4 13.2 12.8 12.4 12.2 12.1 11.9 12.0 12.5 LONG(DEG W) 145.9 147.5 149.0 150.7 152.3 155.5 159.3 162.7 166.0 169.2 172.3 174.8 176.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 16 16 16 17 18 17 16 16 14 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 2 5 5 5 7 3 22 20 34 58 44 49 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -21. -23. -24. -25. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -12. -16. -21. -24. -25. -25. -26. -25. -23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/10/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -29.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/10/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##