* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIN AL052013 08/18/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 28 27 26 26 28 31 31 32 33 32 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 28 27 26 26 28 31 31 32 33 32 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 29 29 29 30 31 32 34 35 37 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 14 15 14 11 12 10 13 10 24 22 28 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 -1 -3 -6 -6 N/A SHEAR DIR 254 245 247 254 241 237 250 260 250 253 233 259 N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.7 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.9 28.1 28.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 115 117 120 121 124 125 127 130 135 137 140 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 104 105 107 110 111 114 115 117 119 123 124 124 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -54.0 -54.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 40 41 37 34 33 29 30 28 29 33 34 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 38 29 10 0 -15 -46 -53 -72 -62 -50 -39 N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -7 -11 -14 3 -19 -6 -13 3 -21 11 -13 N/A 700-850 TADV 10 11 13 18 17 18 16 15 5 2 0 -3 N/A LAND (KM) 2228 2159 2092 2035 1982 1869 1787 1650 1535 1358 1231 1157 N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.4 20.3 20.4 20.4 20.3 20.4 20.6 21.0 21.7 22.6 23.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 39.4 40.4 41.3 42.3 43.3 45.3 47.3 49.4 51.3 53.2 54.8 56.1 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 8 7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 4 7 8 8 5 6 4 9 20 24 17 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052013 ERIN 08/18/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 51.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052013 ERIN 08/18/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052013 ERIN 08/18/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED