* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092013 08/23/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 36 40 37 31 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 36 40 37 31 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 32 33 32 28 23 19 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 5 6 6 5 9 8 12 14 16 8 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 -3 -3 -1 -3 -3 -1 -1 2 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 22 9 42 81 127 96 169 234 167 184 164 189 60 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.3 27.7 25.9 23.6 22.0 20.8 20.2 19.7 19.7 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 151 146 140 122 98 80 67 60 57 57 59 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -51.4 -50.5 -50.9 -50.2 -50.6 -50.1 -50.5 -50.5 -51.1 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 3 1 2 1 2 700-500 MB RH 72 70 70 70 68 65 58 52 44 38 33 35 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 20 22 22 23 21 19 13 8 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 36 33 33 52 60 71 82 68 64 33 38 25 20 200 MB DIV 48 48 62 89 106 88 101 39 41 1 10 10 8 700-850 TADV -3 -8 -4 0 -1 -5 0 0 0 0 -4 -2 0 LAND (KM) 629 590 557 520 493 415 352 337 267 223 238 238 221 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.3 18.8 19.5 20.1 21.6 23.2 24.5 25.8 26.7 27.5 27.5 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 112.4 112.8 113.1 113.4 113.7 114.4 115.3 115.9 116.5 116.9 117.4 117.4 117.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 14 12 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 11. 12. 10. 8. 6. 3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 2. -1. -9. -16. -21. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 7. 1. -13. -28. -41. -47. -53. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092013 NINE 08/23/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092013 NINE 08/23/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##