* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL072013 09/06/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 29 32 35 36 38 36 38 38 39 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 29 32 35 36 38 36 38 38 39 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 21 22 23 24 25 25 25 25 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 21 25 21 17 24 22 33 33 35 31 30 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 -1 0 0 0 2 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 272 263 281 286 272 262 245 249 234 235 203 205 186 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.2 28.8 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 143 145 144 146 151 156 159 159 154 148 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 128 128 128 127 128 133 137 138 137 131 126 116 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 -54.6 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 59 60 60 62 64 65 67 66 66 62 61 55 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 7 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 20 15 0 -3 3 0 2 -1 14 6 5 -35 -33 200 MB DIV 59 43 45 27 43 37 51 40 66 46 56 9 19 700-850 TADV 5 -1 -3 0 3 0 2 0 0 0 4 4 9 LAND (KM) 132 150 174 218 265 351 473 612 781 924 869 714 518 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.8 21.2 21.7 22.1 22.9 24.0 25.2 26.7 28.0 29.5 30.8 32.5 LONG(DEG W) 68.7 69.1 69.4 69.7 69.9 70.1 70.1 69.5 69.2 69.2 69.7 70.5 71.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 5 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 51 56 56 53 52 59 70 55 42 35 36 35 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 24. 28. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 4. -1. -7. -12. -16. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 18. 16. 18. 18. 19. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/06/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/06/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/06/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)