* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/09/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 52 60 67 82 96 103 107 102 94 85 76 V (KT) LAND 40 45 52 60 67 82 96 103 107 102 94 85 76 V (KT) LGE mod 40 45 50 56 62 74 85 87 83 76 69 63 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 7 6 7 4 4 7 10 21 20 19 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 -1 -1 -2 0 -1 -1 -1 0 9 9 SHEAR DIR 69 64 67 48 50 74 167 186 224 240 253 243 242 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.2 26.3 25.6 25.3 25.3 25.2 25.5 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 138 135 133 126 116 110 107 107 106 109 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 135 133 130 128 118 109 102 98 96 94 97 99 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -51.5 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 79 80 79 76 72 69 69 64 59 46 40 33 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 21 23 24 26 29 33 34 35 32 30 28 24 850 MB ENV VOR 101 120 133 130 141 152 152 142 134 112 80 73 61 200 MB DIV 65 93 95 108 114 95 101 109 112 75 -1 -12 6 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 11 16 16 6 11 LAND (KM) 672 770 868 960 1054 1193 1275 1334 1337 1389 1480 1634 1841 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.2 14.5 15.5 17.1 19.0 21.1 22.8 24.1 25.0 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 23.6 24.6 25.5 26.4 27.3 28.6 29.2 29.6 29.9 30.4 31.2 32.6 34.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 10 10 8 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 14 17 15 12 10 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 9. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 12. 14. 14. 11. 8. 5. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 12. 20. 27. 42. 56. 63. 67. 62. 54. 45. 36. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/09/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/09/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 8( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)