* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/09/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 58 66 73 87 97 100 100 94 83 69 58 V (KT) LAND 45 51 58 66 73 87 97 100 100 94 83 69 58 V (KT) LGE mod 45 50 56 61 67 79 85 83 77 70 62 55 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 7 6 5 3 12 16 21 27 32 38 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 2 1 -2 0 -2 -1 3 2 1 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 65 63 60 56 81 158 172 192 216 237 244 249 239 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 26.8 25.8 25.5 25.3 25.2 25.2 25.6 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 140 136 135 133 130 122 112 109 107 105 105 110 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 132 129 127 123 115 105 101 97 94 93 99 104 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -52.3 -52.9 -52.0 -52.8 -51.7 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 79 77 74 73 73 71 69 63 51 37 30 25 23 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 23 26 28 29 32 36 35 34 32 29 24 19 850 MB ENV VOR 130 139 132 145 146 139 153 149 142 104 89 83 67 200 MB DIV 85 76 92 95 102 97 128 118 127 46 -7 -19 9 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 7 11 12 11 7 16 LAND (KM) 808 899 993 1075 1160 1251 1346 1363 1396 1457 1542 1734 2000 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.5 14.8 16.2 18.3 20.4 22.3 23.8 24.9 25.6 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 24.9 25.8 26.7 27.5 28.3 29.1 29.6 30.1 30.5 31.0 31.7 33.5 36.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 10 11 10 9 7 7 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 16 14 12 10 9 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 410 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 1. -2. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 12. 10. 7. 5. -1. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 12. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 21. 28. 42. 52. 55. 55. 49. 38. 24. 13. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/09/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/09/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 10( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)