* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL072013 09/10/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 47 50 54 55 55 55 58 56 48 35 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 47 50 54 55 55 55 58 56 48 35 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 40 42 43 46 49 52 55 54 50 45 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 22 21 23 22 23 26 24 23 41 49 44 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -4 -2 -5 0 -2 -1 4 3 3 SHEAR DIR 222 218 214 232 248 253 279 279 274 219 214 215 237 SST (C) 29.0 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 24.8 20.2 18.2 17.5 16.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 146 141 137 131 129 129 131 104 80 75 74 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 127 121 116 109 105 107 109 89 72 69 69 68 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.8 -55.1 -55.1 -54.8 -55.1 -56.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 4 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 50 45 40 40 45 45 43 49 53 58 57 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 13 14 12 11 10 9 8 7 11 15 15 6 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -31 -27 -57 -70 -86 -92 -76 15 94 118 90 2 200 MB DIV 18 21 12 -17 -14 4 8 30 64 76 65 66 49 700-850 TADV 9 13 11 5 5 3 0 4 15 2 62 67 45 LAND (KM) 1146 1189 1139 1079 1025 950 823 635 422 186 114 68 3 LAT (DEG N) 29.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 10 10 7 5 8 12 12 12 13 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 31 18 14 14 19 28 23 27 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 14 CX,CY: 0/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 460 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. 1. -2. -6. -11. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -2. 2. 1. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 15. 19. 20. 20. 20. 23. 21. 13. 0. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/10/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/10/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/10/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)