* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/11/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 72 74 75 73 69 57 46 36 30 27 27 V (KT) LAND 65 69 72 74 75 73 69 57 46 36 30 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 65 68 70 71 71 69 64 59 54 49 45 42 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 2 6 12 15 17 20 27 32 34 30 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 1 1 5 5 0 0 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 340 225 169 184 198 227 224 232 243 247 265 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.3 26.0 25.6 25.4 25.3 25.3 25.6 26.0 26.3 26.5 26.7 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 121 116 113 110 108 107 107 110 114 117 119 121 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 108 105 102 99 97 96 100 104 107 108 110 113 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -53.1 -53.7 -53.2 -53.3 -52.6 -52.6 -53.3 -53.8 -54.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 75 75 72 70 59 52 45 44 43 47 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 26 27 27 27 29 27 27 22 17 14 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 107 118 116 106 107 92 72 50 36 20 14 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 88 115 113 111 85 26 -23 -6 -6 -6 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 4 4 7 14 10 2 0 -2 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1242 1265 1294 1301 1287 1326 1430 1618 1873 2148 2394 2448 2279 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 17.1 17.9 18.9 19.8 21.6 22.9 23.6 23.7 23.9 24.3 24.9 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.8 30.8 32.6 35.1 37.8 40.2 42.7 45.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 9 9 8 10 12 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 2 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 2 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -6. -10. -14. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 10. 8. 4. -8. -19. -29. -35. -38. -38. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/11/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 3.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/11/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 5( 11) 4( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)