* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/12/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 79 77 75 66 56 46 38 30 25 29 31 V (KT) LAND 75 78 79 77 75 66 56 46 38 30 25 29 31 V (KT) LGE mod 75 78 77 75 72 65 59 55 51 47 44 43 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 11 14 17 21 23 26 30 33 33 33 21 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 5 1 1 6 1 3 0 0 5 -2 SHEAR DIR 168 205 206 223 228 248 237 244 250 263 247 236 254 SST (C) 25.7 25.5 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.5 25.9 26.2 26.5 26.8 27.3 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 111 109 107 107 107 107 109 113 116 119 123 128 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 101 98 97 97 96 98 102 106 108 110 113 115 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.6 -53.1 -52.6 -53.1 -52.8 -52.5 -53.0 -53.6 -54.1 -55.0 -54.8 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 69 68 64 61 54 49 43 42 41 46 47 49 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 28 30 29 29 26 23 20 18 16 14 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 109 102 109 100 81 57 47 42 39 27 22 39 44 200 MB DIV 110 114 96 105 57 6 -4 12 25 -10 17 62 16 700-850 TADV 6 8 14 21 17 13 3 6 0 4 -1 2 3 LAND (KM) 1275 1273 1280 1306 1338 1443 1634 1858 2120 2376 2481 2337 2179 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.5 20.4 21.2 22.0 23.4 24.3 24.5 24.4 24.9 26.1 26.8 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.9 30.9 32.7 34.9 37.5 40.0 42.4 44.6 46.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 9 9 11 12 12 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 3 24 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -11. -15. -19. -21. -23. -24. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 2. 0. -9. -19. -29. -37. -45. -50. -46. -44. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/12/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/12/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 7( 12) 5( 16) 3( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)